Drought and rainfall deficit represent major climatic risks that increasingly affect the southern region of the Republic of Moldova. The aim of this study is to identify and characterize the spatial variability and temporal trends of rainfall deficit using three complementary indices - the Percent of Normal Index (PNI), the Decile Index (DI), and the Rainfall Anomaly Index (RAI) - in combination with the Mann–Kendall trend test.
The analysis is based on data from five meteorological stations (Leova, Cahul, Comrat, Ceadir-Lunga, and Stefan Voda) covering the 1991-2022 period. The results show that the highest number of months with rainfall deficits occurred at Cahul and Leova, while the overall trends are not statistically significant. However, a seasonal redistribution of precipitation is observed, with drier summers and wetter autumns, along with a slight aridization toward the southwest. The findings confirm the increasing pluviometric instability over recent decades and highlight the need for adaptive measures in water resource management and drought monitoring, both meteorological and agricultural, in the southern part of the Republic of Moldova.
Keywords:
sécheresse, Mann Kendall, Moldavie, déficit pluviométrique, risque