This study analyzes the seasonal precipitation regime in the Republic of Moldova (1961-2024), applying the Mann-Kendall test to identify significant changes necessary for adapting water resource management. The observed trends were validated by comparing them with the regional IPCC SSP projections for Eastern Europe and the Black Sea Basin. The results indicate a substantial shift in the climate regime. A sharp decrease in precipitation was recorded during the spring and summer seasons in both the North and the South. The Southern region, particularly Cahul, is the most severely affected, showing statistically significant aridification. The critical figure is a reduction in summer precipitation of 10.7 mm/decade. In contrast, the autumn season shows a significant increase, indicating a reorientation of the seasonal climate cycle. Furthermore, the analysis reveals a crucial correlation: La NiƱa events are linked to an increase in the intensity and frequency of severe drought periods. This finding provides a strong scientific basis for developing differentiated climate change adaptation and effective water resource management policies.
Keywords:
climate change, precipitation trend, temporal variability, Mann-Kendall test, ENSO (long-distance atmospheric and oceanic impacts), IPCC (Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change)